Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
