A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
